Markets and investing

The adage “sell in May and go away”, referring to the historically weaker performance of stocks from May to October compared with the other half of the year, didn’t disappoint this time around, too.

Private markets were once the reserve of sophisticated and institutional investors but have experienced significant growth in recent years. Now, a far broader range of private market investments are available to clients.

A bit like the unpredictable weather we’ve had over the past few weeks, politics has been a rollercoaster. As expected, the UK election delivered a Labour win. While there might be tax and broader fiscal implications at the individual level, the outcome wasn’t unexpected, which is why it hasn’t moved markets that much.

The overall outcome of the French legislative elections came as expected: a hung parliament where no party/alliance managed to secure the absolute majority of 289 seats. But it came with a twist.

That Labour won a strong absolute majority, and the Conservative Party sank to the lowest result ever isn’t a surprise for markets, given the polls. The next government plans to follow the same fiscal rules as the outgoing one and so, in our view, it will have limited fiscal space. However, there could be modest effects on different groups of consumers and firms.

The French head to the polls on June 30 and July 7 to elect their members of Parliament. How does that work? There are 577 seats up for grabs, so a party needs 289 seats to have an outright majority to govern. Anything less, in general, would mean that several parties may try to work together to form a coalition. This has been the case since 2022, with a coalition supporting President Macron given that his party does not have an outright majority.