In 2024, 4 billion people across 74 countries are casting their votes. Among these, the US Presidential, Senate, and Congress elections on November 5 are set to be the most market-moving.
The US Presidential election is shaping up to be a highly competitive race, with Kamala Harris slightly leading in national polls, while Donald Trump holds a marginal lead in swing states. The election's outcome remains uncertain, with potential implications for market volatility and economic policies. If Harris wins, we can expect a continuation of Biden's policies, which may support trade-related and clean energy stocks but could lead to corporate tax hikes. On the other hand, a Trump victory might benefit US stocks, the oil and gas sector, and the US dollar, but could negatively impact US Treasuries and trade-dependent equities.
With the US election less than one week away, we are pleased to share the exclusive thoughts of a series of leading experts on the potential impact of the election on markets, geopolitical landscape and economic policy. The thought leaders featured are:
The key question when you look at the US election is what happens to the fiscal bit. You don’t hear much about it in the political debates.
Uncertainty looms over the 47th US presidential elections, with rising fiscal deficits, debt and unknown foreign policies adding to the complexity. Regardless of the elections’ outcomes, discover how we apprehend this event by mitigating risks and leveraging growth opportunities.
Neither party has prioritised tackling the budget deficit. We see persistent deficits as reinforcing our views around sticky inflation and higher for longer interest rate.
What are the main differences between the two candidates on key policies, fiscal, regulatory and trade? These divergences could have a different impact on markets. Discover in this video what’s our partner BlackRock’s take on the US elections.
The party that controls the White House doesn’t necessarily control either the House of
Representatives or the Senate.
US voters aren’t just deciding on their next President, but also what the composition of the US Congress will look like. Discover how this composition could impact the policy plans each candidate, particularly around one of the key policy points: tax.
Every President in the United States thinks they’re putting America first, they just have different approaches as to how to do it.
The next US President could have a significant effect on America’s engagement with our nations. Discover how a Harris or Trump administration could influence US alliances across the globe.
