Any self-respecting investment strategist derives a fair amount of titles for research reports from Western films. If it’s scenario analysis, then The Good, the Bad and the Ugly does a good job. If it’s fiscal and political uncertainty we’re talking about, as we’ve seen in the UK recently (leading to Liz Truss’s resignation and the shortest government in the country’s history), perhaps The Wild Bunch. And, of course, A Fistful of Dollars refers to currencies.

Luxembourg-headquartered independent wealth manager named one of Europe’s ‘Outstanding Private Banks’ , also recognized among world’s ‘Best Banks for Sustainability and ESG Leadership’

Markets are full of sayings that somehow have to do with water: “one tide lifts all boats” when liquidity comes in; or, vice versa, “when the tide goes out, you find out who’s swimming naked”. Or they have to do with animals: are you a “bull” or a “bear”? Investors ask hurriedly.

The success of monetary and fiscal stimulus in cushioning the pandemic blow is well known. But the resulting demand surge, pressing against constrained supply, has also produced an excess of inflation and rising interest rates – a drag on equities.

“Why do economists use decimal points in their forecasts? To show that they have a sense of humour” is a joke that resurfaces in the marketplace every time volatility picks up. There’s some truth in this. Things rarely move consistently in one direction. So incrementally tracking how they’re unfolding is useful.

Our Counterpoint mid-year outlook, published a few days ago, goes from micro to macro and thematic. It talks about how geopolitical and supply shocks in the age of disruption are impacting companies, sectors, inflation and economic policy, our energy supply and technologies, creating risks and opportunities along the way.

“Counterpoint” highlights dynamics that will drive the global economy, financial markets and key asset classes over the second half of 2022 and beyond

As global financial markets work through a period of elevated volatility and increased risks, we prefer investment themes with robust structural growth characteristics but also stronger fundamentals, such as those with resilient earnings and some defensive qualities.

“Economists will know tomorrow why the things they predicted yesterday didn’t happen” is a joke that, in this fast-moving market cycle, has a deeper lesson. Rather than sticking to an all-knowing prediction, it’s more fruitful to use a transparent cause-effect framework to recalibrate the base case as events unfold.

Sales and earnings growth for Q1 2022 in both the US and Europe exceeded expectations, led by strong energy sector results. The percentage of companies beating forecasts is above the long-term trend, but the margin of surprise is lower than recent quarters.

Former HSBC Head of Global Private Banking, EMEA, to lead Quintet into next stage of its long-term growth

In the mid-1990s, British Prime Minister John Major reportedly asked Russian President Boris Yeltsin to describe the Russian economy in one word. He replied “good”. Surprised by this assessment, Major asked Yeltsin if he could describe it in two words.

Following a poor start to 2022, Asia high yield (HY) bonds have staged a notable recovery since mid-March. We have been holding a tactical overweight position against USD investment grade (IG) bonds. What are the main features of the Asia HY market and our outlook for the asset class?

Some segments of the Treasury curve are now inverted. While investors see this as a warning signal, the reality is more nuanced. We explore what it means for the probability of US recession, and for equity and other asset class returns.

We believe the war in Ukraine – which is first and foremost a humanitarian tragedy – will spur some countries and businesses to reduce long-term risks that have emerged from that conflict.

Quintet Private Bank announced today its 2021 financial results, highlighting the ongoing growth of its core business over that 12-month period.

On 10 and 24 April, France will elect its new president at a crucial time – a war raging on the fringes of Europe. Emmanuel Macron looks set to be re-elected for a second term. We explore the key implications for the economy and markets.

In The Economic Consequences of the Peace, published in 1919, John Maynard Keynes predicted that stiff war reparations would lead Germany to financial instability, with economic and political repercussions across Europe and the whole world.

While geopolitical uncertainty could keep them low for longer, bond yields are on the rise as central banks normalise policy. We expect them to move higher but, over the medium term, see lower rates than in past cycles.

It’s tempting to attribute the ongoing risk-off move to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That’s part of the story but, like Russian dolls, there’s a scenario inside a bigger one, which is inside an even bigger scenario, and so on.