Economists’ failure to accurately predict the magnitude of big events like booms and recessions and – perhaps more often than they’d like to admit – the timing of these events with sufficient foresight, inevitably makes them the target of all sorts of jokes: for example, how can you tell that economists have a sense of humour? Because they put decimal points in their forecasts.

The first-quarter earnings season highlights once again that consensus expectations for corporate profits have been too conservative as the world recovers from the pandemic. Near-term expectations are being revised higher.

"Nothing is certain but death and taxes" is a rather fatalistic proverb drawing on the inevitability of the life cycle to make a parallel with the inevitability of the fiscal burden. However, just like with Fed tapering, the key thing with any tax policy change is timing and thresholds.

Quintet’s sustainable investing philosophy comprises a toolkit of approaches and dedicated assets. In this primer we deep dive into the thematic approach – the fastest-growing sustainable investing strategy.

One of the perennial dilemmas of strategists is figuring out when good news becomes bad news in the eyes of the market, and vice versa. Say the jobs report comes in stronger than expected. This would be good news and the market would go up. More people working means more tax revenues, less spending on unemployment benefits and an increase in demand.

Total income rises to €513 million, while total client assets reach €85 billion

The long-awaited inflation spike has come. Price cuts in the early months of the pandemic are now dropping out of the annual comparison. Surging commodity prices and temporary supply bottlenecks are doing the rest. But we don’t see the pace of wage growth and degree of tightness in the labour market that could result in a more long-lasting inflation spiral.

How should investors think about the price of gold following the pickup in real yields? What’s the outlook for oil versus metals such as copper now that economies are reopening?

Microeconomists are wrong about specific things – economist and comedian Yoram Bauman often says – whereas macroeconomists are wrong in general. Could it be different this time around? A critical look at both the micro and macro drivers of bond yields suggests that a large part of the move higher, at least in the short term, is likely to be behind us.

In the fourth piece in a series exploring our approach to strategic asset allocation (SAA), we look at what our capital market assumptions tell us about recovering losses when things don’t go as planned and why history is a useful but imperfect guide to the future.

Quintet's incorporation of environmental and social characteristics comprises a toolkit of approaches and dedicated assets. In this primer we deep dive into the improvers approach – arguably the most innovative ESG investing strategy.

The capital sins of forecasting are flip-flopping (rapidly switching from one view to another, back and forth) and salami-slicing (frequently making incremental, insignificant changes). Dealing with uncertainty is a key part of forecasting. There are two types of risks. Black swans, such as Covid-19, are unknown unknowns, high-impact but very rare events that investors often underappreciate.

The caricature of the strategist always painting a year of two halves, one bullish and the other bearish or vice versa, is partly true. What’s behind it is the impulse to stay current with macro developments. Timing turning points isn’t easy, but keeping an eye on how things are changing is healthy. We got strong US growth upgrades and higher interest rates lately. This is why the US dollar has strengthened and may continue to do so for some time.

Should investors worry about inflation? Is the upcoming spike temporary, a longlasting trend leading to central banks hiking rates or are bond yields ultimately overreacting?

Experienced wealth management professional promoted to leadership role overseeing Quintet’s Northern European growth and expansion

Former US President Harry Truman once pleaded “give me a one-handed economist”, having tired of his advisers proclaiming “on the one hand, this” but “on the other hand, that”. The investor debate on whether rising bond yields and, potentially, higher inflation (however transitory) are signs of recovery and reflation or, rather, a market setback as central banks may tighten policy, feels a bit like this.

The third piece in a series exploring our approach to strategic asset allocation takes a closer look at our expected evolution for eurozone government bond yields and the role they play in optimising the risk and return balance in well- diversified portfolios.

Martial artist and movie star Bruce Lee famously summarised his philosophy as “be water”. He meant that adaptability is a key skill (“be formless, shapeless, like water”) and that the same thing can have different effects depending on how sudden, fast the movement is (“water can flow or it can crash”). The rise in bond yields is just like this.

Our scorecards for emerging markets highlight where fundamentals are resilient and where they’re not. These measures are especially important if bond yields overshoot their forecasts.

Back in the 1990s, investors worried about a potential spike in bond yields if Bill Clinton pushed through with his plan of economic stimulus. James Carville, his adviser, joked that, rather than as the next US president or a baseball player, he wanted to be reincarnated as the bond market, because “you can intimidate everybody”.