Our insights

As AI advances from answering questions to performing work, its growing usefulness is creating a physical demand for electricity, data centers, cooling, grids, and related infrastructure. The analysis argues that these enabling systems may offer broader investment opportunities than the better-known semiconductor theme.

Europe is undertaking a broad rebuilding effort centered on defence, energy security, electrification and industrial capacity. The scale of committed investment is reshaping economic priorities and drawing investor attention to the companies supplying essential infrastructure and equipment.

Growth remains resilient and corporate earnings continue to benefit from the AI investment cycle. At the same time, rising political uncertainty in Europe is reshaping our government bond positioning.

For years, investors became accustomed to a world where bonds offered little reward. Government bond yields hovered near zero or even in negative territory, central banks dominated markets, and generating a meaningful level of income often required taking significantly more risk. In that environment, bond investors depended heavily on falling yields and rising prices to achieve attractive returns. Today, the landscape looks very different.

US midterm elections are presented primarily as an investment and economic event rather than a political contest. The analysis expects divided government to be the most likely outcome, with markets eventually refocusing on growth, inflation, interest rates, and company fundamentals.

Markets remain supported by resilient growth and solid corporate earnings, but rising debt levels, geopolitical tensions and energy risks warrant caution.

How selective profit-taking, higher bond yields and greater selectivity within equities are shaping portfolio positioning as the economic cycle matures.

SpaceX’s rise highlights the evolving link between space technology, sustainability and energy, from reusable rockets to satellite connectivity and proposed space-based data infrastructure.

A new wave of mega-IPOs, led by SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic, could reshape equity markets. These listings aim to raise significant capital for AI and infrastructure rather than provide exits, raising concerns about high valuations and the market’s ability to absorb such large supply without potential re-pricing.

In our 2026 mid-year Counterpoint Outlook, we look at how geopolitics, oil prices, resilient earnings and shifting market leadership are shaping portfolio positioning today.

Every four years, the FIFA World Cup becomes a global stage for billions of people and for some of the world’s biggest brands. The objective is clear: maximum visibility, higher sales, and a positive influence to their share prices.

May 2026 market outlook: how oil prices, geopolitics and inflation shape portfolio positioning, with a focus on quality equities, bonds and diversification.